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Flight risk and early signals

What is a resignation signal?

Definition

A resignation signal is an observable change that tends to precede someone giving notice, such as a public profile refresh, a withdrawal from optional work, or a shift in visible career activity.

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A resignation signal is a change that tends to come before notice.

Signals come in two kinds. Some are inside the company: someone stops volunteering for optional work, goes quiet in meetings, or takes more unplanned days off. Others are public: a refreshed profile headline, new skills listed, a new photo or summary, or an Open to Work badge.

A signal gives you a window in which to act.

Signals buy time. The gap between the first signal and the resignation letter is the only window in which a retention conversation can still change the outcome.

One signal is noise and several together are a pattern.

A single profile edit means very little, because people update profiles for many reasons. Several signals arriving in the same few weeks, especially after a trigger such as a reorganization, a new manager or a missed bonus, is the pattern worth a conversation. These are the common ones:

  • A cluster of public profile edits in a short window.
  • A refreshed headline or a burst of new skills.
  • An Open to Work badge shown publicly.
  • A withdrawal from optional work, a version of quiet quitting.
  • A rise in unplanned absence, tracked as absenteeism.

A signal is evidence and never proof.

Every signal has innocent explanations: a profile refresh before a conference talk, fewer optional projects during a hard few months at home, a new certification the company itself paid for. That is why the pattern matters more than any single item, and why the response is always a question about the work.

The right response is a conversation about the person's work.

Talk about growth, workload and what the person wants next, the things that usually sit behind a job search. Never mention the signals or treat them as disloyalty. That destroys the trust a retention conversation depends on.

TeamPredict watches the public signals for you.

TeamPredict checks the public LinkedIn profiles of the people you choose to track every day. When the signals add up, it raises that person's resignation-risk level and shows the specific changes behind it, so you know whose conversation comes first. It never contacts the people you track. See how it works.

These are the common mistakes with resignation signals.

  • Acting on one signal on its own.
  • Confronting someone about a profile change.
  • Watching only public signals and ignoring what the manager hears in one-on-ones.
  • Waiting for certainty. By the time a move is certain, the decision has been made.

Find out who is showing exit signals.

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  • Flight risk

    Flight risk is the likelihood that a specific employee leaves in the near future, based on observable signals rather than a manager's hunch.

  • Open to Work signal

    Open to Work is a public LinkedIn setting that tells recruiters a person is open to new roles. Shown publicly, it is one of the most direct job-search signals a profile can carry.

  • Predictive attrition model

    A predictive attrition model estimates which employees are most likely to leave in a coming period, from patterns that preceded past departures.

  • Quiet quitting

    Quiet quitting is doing the job as written and no more: no extra hours, no optional projects, no volunteering beyond the role.

  • Absenteeism

    Absenteeism is unplanned absence from work beyond normal, approved leave.

  • One-on-one

    A one-on-one is a recurring private conversation between a manager and a direct report about the work, the obstacles and the person's growth.

These pages on this site go deeper.

Back to the HR glossary, where all 52 terms are defined.