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Flight risk and early signals

What is flight risk?

Definition

Flight risk is the likelihood that a specific employee leaves in the near future, based on observable signals rather than a manager's hunch.

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Flight risk is the chance that one person leaves soon.

It is a judgment about an individual, made from things you can observe: a stalled path, pay drifting below market, a strained manager relationship, a workload that never eases, and public signs that a job search has started.

It is not a company-wide rate. The turnover rate tells you how many people left last year. Flight risk tells you who might be next.

Flight risk tells a manager whom to talk to first.

It exists to prioritize. A manager has time for a handful of real retention conversations a month, and flight risk decides which handful. It is a prompt to talk to someone, never a verdict about them.

You assess it by scoring several signals together.

Score the known departure signals for one person and read them together rather than one at a time. A single signal is noise, several arriving in the same few weeks is a pattern.

The free assessment on this site groups ten factors into five areas: growth and recognition, pay and market, manager and engagement, workload and burnout, and outside signals. Each factor is answered no, somewhat or yes, and the answers add up to a score out of 100.

Here is how it looks for an invented employee.

Take an invented senior analyst. Her last raise was two years ago and a promotion she wanted went to someone else. Her manager changed in a reorganization three months ago. In the last few weeks she refreshed her public profile headline and added several new skills.

Any one of those is survivable. Together, a stalled path, a recent trigger and outside signals arriving in the same few weeks are the pattern worth a conversation this week. The conversation is about her growth, never about the profile edits.

A high score is a reason to talk, not a judgment of the person.

Use the score to decide whose stay interview or one-on-one comes first. Never use it as an input to pay, promotion or performance decisions, which turns a retention tool into a reason for people to hide.

These are the common mistakes with flight risk.

  • Reacting to one signal on its own. A single signal is noise.
  • Confronting the person about the signals instead of asking about their work and growth.
  • Scoring people once a year. Risk changes after triggers such as a reorganization, a new manager or a missed bonus.
  • Saving the conversation for after the resignation, when a counteroffer is the only tool left.

Find out who is showing exit signals.

Score one person against ten factors in five areas, in a few minutes, and see which signals are contributing most.

Run a flight risk assessment

Free, no signup required.

These related terms are in the glossary too.

  • Resignation signal

    A resignation signal is an observable change that tends to precede someone giving notice, such as a public profile refresh, a withdrawal from optional work, or a shift in visible career activity.

  • Predictive attrition model

    A predictive attrition model estimates which employees are most likely to leave in a coming period, from patterns that preceded past departures.

  • Open to Work signal

    Open to Work is a public LinkedIn setting that tells recruiters a person is open to new roles. Shown publicly, it is one of the most direct job-search signals a profile can carry.

  • Dysfunctional turnover

    Dysfunctional turnover is a departure that damages the organization: a high performer, a specialist, or someone hard to replace at any price.

  • Regretted attrition

    Regretted attrition is a departure the company did not want: someone whose performance, skills or relationships you would have paid to keep.

  • Stay interview

    A stay interview is a structured conversation with a current employee about what keeps them here and what would make them consider leaving.

These pages on this site go deeper.

Back to the HR glossary, where all 52 terms are defined.