[Flight risk and early signals](https://www.teampredict.ai/glossary#flight-risk) # What is flight risk? Definition Flight risk is the likelihood that a specific employee leaves in the near future, based on observable signals rather than a manager's hunch. Last updated October 13, 2026 ## Flight risk is the chance that one person leaves soon. It is a judgment about an individual, made from things you can observe: a stalled path, pay drifting below market, a strained manager relationship, a workload that never eases, and public signs that a job search has started. It is not a company-wide rate. The [turnover rate](https://www.teampredict.ai/glossary/turnover-rate) tells you how many people left last year. Flight risk tells you who might be next. ## Flight risk tells a manager whom to talk to first. It exists to prioritize. A manager has time for a handful of real retention conversations a month, and flight risk decides which handful. It is a prompt to talk to someone, never a verdict about them. ## You assess it by scoring several signals together. Score the known departure signals for one person and read them together rather than one at a time. A single signal is noise, several arriving in the same few weeks is a pattern. _Figure: Two timelines. On the first, a single signal arrives on its own: that is noise. On the second, several signals arrive in the same few weeks, a public profile refresh, a withdrawal from optional work and a shift in visible career activity: that is a pattern. The gap between the first signal and the resignation letter is the only window in which a retention conversation can still change the outcome._ The free assessment on this site groups ten factors into five areas: growth and recognition, pay and market, manager and engagement, workload and burnout, and outside signals. Each factor is answered no, somewhat or yes, and the answers add up to a score out of 100. ## Here is how it looks for an invented employee. Take an invented senior analyst. Her last raise was two years ago and a promotion she wanted went to someone else. Her manager changed in a reorganization three months ago. In the last few weeks she refreshed her public profile headline and added several new skills. _Figure: An invented senior analyst with signals in three areas. Growth and recognition: no raise in two years and a promotion that went to someone else. Manager and engagement: a new manager after a reorganization three months ago. Outside signals: a refreshed profile headline and several new skills in the last few weeks. Any one is survivable; together they are the pattern worth a conversation this week._ Any one of those is survivable. Together, a stalled path, a recent trigger and outside signals arriving in the same few weeks are the pattern worth a conversation this week. The conversation is about her growth, never about the profile edits. ## A high score is a reason to talk, not a judgment of the person. Use the score to decide whose [stay interview](https://www.teampredict.ai/glossary#stay-interview) or [one-on-one](https://www.teampredict.ai/glossary/one-on-one) comes first. Never use it as an input to pay, promotion or performance decisions, which turns a retention tool into a reason for people to hide. ## These are the common mistakes with flight risk. - Reacting to one signal on its own. A single signal is noise. - Confronting the person about the signals instead of asking about their work and growth. - Scoring people once a year. Risk changes after triggers such as a reorganization, a new manager or a missed bonus. - Saving the conversation for after the resignation, when a [counteroffer](https://www.teampredict.ai/glossary#counteroffer) is the only tool left. ## Find out who is showing exit signals. Score one person against ten factors in five areas, in a few minutes, and see which signals are contributing most. [Run a flight risk assessment](https://www.teampredict.ai/tools/employee-flight-risk-assessment) Free, no signup required. ## These related terms are in the glossary too. - [Resignation signal](https://www.teampredict.ai/glossary/resignation-signal) A resignation signal is an observable change that tends to precede someone giving notice, such as a public profile refresh, a withdrawal from optional work, or a shift in visible career activity. - [Predictive attrition model](https://www.teampredict.ai/glossary/predictive-attrition-model) A predictive attrition model estimates which employees are most likely to leave in a coming period, from patterns that preceded past departures. - [Open to Work signal](https://www.teampredict.ai/glossary/open-to-work) Open to Work is a public LinkedIn setting that tells recruiters a person is open to new roles. Shown publicly, it is one of the most direct job-search signals a profile can carry. - [Dysfunctional turnover](https://www.teampredict.ai/glossary/dysfunctional-turnover) Dysfunctional turnover is a departure that damages the organization: a high performer, a specialist, or someone hard to replace at any price. - [Regretted attrition](https://www.teampredict.ai/glossary/regretted-attrition) Regretted attrition is a departure the company did not want: someone whose performance, skills or relationships you would have paid to keep. - [Stay interview](https://www.teampredict.ai/glossary#stay-interview) A stay interview is a structured conversation with a current employee about what keeps them here and what would make them consider leaving. ## These pages on this site go deeper. - [Employee flight risk guide](https://www.teampredict.ai/blog/employee-flight-risk) About TeamPredict TeamPredict is retention early-warning software that flags resignation risk from public LinkedIn signals, so you have lead time to keep the people you want to keep. [See how TeamPredict works](https://www.teampredict.ai/retention-software) [Back to the HR glossary](https://www.teampredict.ai/glossary#flight-risk), where all 52 terms are defined.